From Nate
Kagan overtakes Wood even though she’s less liberal, because she’s more likely to have survived. She continues to provide excess value over Kagan from that point forward, until we reach a period 40+ years out where both women are almost certain to be dead. On balance, Kagan’s lifetime expected [value] is actually higher than that of Kagan’s (1,280 rather than 1,206, if you care), assuming that she’ll defect from the liberals 10 percent of the time whereas Wood never will.
Meanwhile, John Roberts is 55, Samuel Alito is 60, Clarence Thomas is 61. Kennedy and Scalia are both in the early 70′s, but Roberts and Alito could eventually approach the Hugo Black–William Douglas record (42 years) for time served on the court together.
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